2nd Edition of Agriculture, Forestry, and Horticulture World Conference 2026

Abstract

Rice production risk is one of the main challenges faced by farmers in Indonesia, particularly due to climate change, floods, droughts, and pest and disease attacks (OPT). The Indonesian government has introduced the Rice Farming Insurance Program (AUTP) as a risk mitigation instrument to protect farmers from crop failure losses. This study aims to analyze the level of rice production risk and identify the factors influencing it among AUTP participant and non-participant farmers in Pringsewu Regency, Lampung Province, which has the highest AUTP participation rate in the province. Primary data were obtained through structured interviews with 100 respondents consisting of 50 AUTP participant farmers and 50 non-participant farmers. The level of production risk was measured using the coefficient of variation (CV) method, while the factors influencing production risk were analyzed using the Cobb-Douglas production function model and the Just and Pope (1979) model. The results show that non-participant farmers had a CV value of 1.00 in the first planting season (MT I) and 0.90 in the second planting season (MT II), indicating high and moderate production risk categories, respectively. Meanwhile, AUTP participant farmers recorded a CV value of 1.02 in MT I and 2.00 in MT II, indicating high production risk in both planting seasons. The higher production risk among AUTP participant farmers suggests that farmers who join the program tend to be those facing greater production risks, which is consistent with the concept of adverse selection in agricultural insurance programs. Key variables examined as factors influencing production risk include land area, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, labor, external environmental factors, and agricultural technology adoption. The findings are expected to contribute to evidence-based policy recommendations for strengthening the AUTP program and improving the welfare of rice farmers in Pringsewu Regency.